The Population of Singapore (Third Edition) by Saw Swee-Hock

Author:Saw Swee-Hock [Swee-Hock, Saw]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9789814380980
Google: dD2qVu8EpdUC
Published: 2012-06-15T02:56:50.880000+00:00

TABLE 8.10

Total Fertility Rate for Three Main Races, 1975–2010

(T) = Tiger year; (D) = Dragon year

FIGURE 8.6

Total Fertility Rates for Three Main Races, 1975–2010

The Chinese fertility edged up to the target of replacement level equivalent to 2.15 in the Dragon year in 1976, after falling slightly below this level in the previous year. But this was only a flash in the pan as it resumed its downward trend immediately, to reach the low of 1.45 in 1983. Thereafter, a minor rise was recorded when the Chinese fertility moved up to 1.46 in 1984 and 1.50 in 1985. But this gentle uptrend was abruptly broken by the Tiger year which caused the Chinese fertility to shrink by 16.0 per cent and to reach the low of 1.26 in 1986. It recovered by 17.5 per cent to 1.48 in the following year and then shot up by 27.0 per cent to reach 1.88 in the Dragon year of 1988. It took an immediate downturn to 1.60 in the following, a pronounced drop of 14.9 per cent.

The spectacular rise in 1988, as noted earlier, was partly due to the pronatalist measures introduced in 1987. From henceforth, the Chinese fertility followed a downward path, with a huge reduction of 11.6 per cent recorded in the Tiger year of 1998 and a rise of almost magnitude equivalent to 11.5 per cent in the Chinese Dragon year of 2000. Since then, the Chinese fertility has fallen to the low of 1.08 in 2004, just slightly more than half the replacement level. The various pronatalist measures put into place since 2004 appeared to have prevented the Chinese fertility from drifting further downhill in the next seven years when it advanced by 0.9 per cent in 2005, 1.8 per cent in 2006, 2.7 per cent in 2007, and 2.6 in 2008. The drift downwards started again after that, with the Chinese fertility touching the rock-bottom of 1.05 in the Tiger year of 2010.

Since the Tiger and Dragon years have such an important impact on not only the fertility level but also the marriage incidence, a more detailed analysis of the phenomenon is presented below:

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